November 9, 2017
November 3, 2017
Stocks have ended the day higher, with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ setting new all-time closing highs. The Dow closed up 22.93 at 23,539.19 and the S&P 500 closed up 7.99 at 2,587.84. Mortgage Bonds ended the day higher, break through another ceiling of resistance.
The highly anticipated Jobs Reported showed that there were 261,000 jobs created in October, which was lower than market expectations of 325,000. There were positive revisions to the previous two months, which offset some of the miss in today’s headline figure – August was revised higher by 39,000 from 169,000 to 208,000 and September was also revised higher by 51,000 from -33,000 to a positive 18,000, for a combined two month revision of 90,000 jobs.
Average Hourly earnings dropped from 2.7% to 2.4%, which shows decreasing wage pressured inflation…this metric helped Bonds.
There are actually two different surveys within the Jobs Report – the Business Survey, where the headline jobs figure is derived from and the Household Survey, where the Unemployment Rate comes from. There is a job creation component within the Household Survey as well, which is very volatile. And after a wild spike of 906,000 jobs in September (which was literally a polar opposite of the job losses showed in the Business Survey), the Household Survey showed a loss of 484,000 jobs in October. However, because the labor force shrunk by 765,000, the Unemployment Rate improved from 4.2% to 4.1%. The all in U6 Unemployment Rate dropped from 8.3% to 7.9%, which matches the low from December 2006.
Economic Data
Jobs Report: Actual = 261,000; Consensus = 325,000; Prior = 18,000
Upcoming Events
Next week is a very quiet economic news week. There will be a 10 and 30-year Bond Auction, which could impact the markets, but the Charts and technical analysis will likely drive market direction.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds have broken above the 25-day Moving Average and are now trading just beneath the 100-day Moving Average – Bonds have taken out several ceilings of resistance over the last few days, which is a positive sign. The 10-year Treasury Note Yield has broken beneath its 25-day Moving Average and now has the 200-day Moving Average in its sights.
Position
Floating
November 2, 2017
October 28, 2017
Stocks have ended the day higher, really led by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. As mentioned this morning, both of
those indices got a boost from stronger than expected earnings from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. The Dow
closed up 33.33 at 23,434.19 and the S&P closed up 20.67 at 2,581.07. Mortgage Bonds ended the day sharply
higher and back above an important resistance level at 102.50.
Earlier today there were reports that President Trump has narrowed his choice for the new Fed chair to Jerome
Powell and John Taylor…but he is leaning towards Powell, who is more dovish on monetary policy. Bonds reacted
favorably to this news.
In economic news, the first look at 3rd quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the US economy grew
by 3.0%, which was better than expectations of 2.5%, but a slight drop from the last reading of 3.1% in the second
quarter. This was the first time since 2014 that the economy has had two consecutive quarters of growth above
3.0%. It is important to note that full year GDP is much lower than 3%…the advanced reading of Q3 GDP shows
that the growth annualized in this quarter is 3%, but remember Q1 was much lower so full year is going to be less.
Consumer Sentiment was also released, showing that consumers’ attitudes on the economy are still very strong.
The index came out at 100.7, which is a slight drop from 101.1, but still at a very high level. Part of the reason for
this is likely the Stock market, which has essentially just gone up.
Economic Data
Q3 GDP: Actual = 3.0%; Consensus = 2.5%; Prior = 3.1% (Q2 Final)
Consumer Sentiment: Actual = 100.7; Consensus = 101; Prior = 101.1
Upcoming Events
Next week is an action-packed week. It is Jobs week, with the ADP and BLS Jobs Reports due for release on
Wednesday and Friday respectively. There will be a Fed Meeting starting on Tuesday, with the Statement at
2:00pm ET on Wednesday. Additionally, we will get the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE), along with the Employment Cost Index. And if that weren’t enough, there is also some
Housing data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Technical Picture
Mortgage Bonds bounced higher off off support at 102.297 and have broken through resistance 102.50. If Bonds
can confirm this move on Monday, the aforementioned technical level will act as support. The 10-year Treasury
Note Yield has moved back down to 2.42% and looks like it wants to test 2.385% once again. That will be a big
threshold and test. We can continue floating into the weekend.
Position
Floating
October 26, 2017